FORECASTING PATTERN OF CARGO THROUGHPUT AND FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE THE GROWTH OF CARGO THROUGHPUT: A CASE STUDY OF PORT KLANG

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the pattern of Port Klang cargo throughput growth and factor that influence the cargo throughput. 2 years interval and 5 years interval were used in Simple Moving Average model and Exponential Smoothing with damping factor (α) 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9 were used to forecast the pattern of cargo throughput. Linear Regression is used to analyse the factor that influence the cargo throughput. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used as accuracy model diagnostic. 2 years interval Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing with α 0.5 is chosen as forecasting model based on MAPE. Container cargo is the factor that influence the most in the growth of cargo throughput.