COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL OF TREE MAPPING APPROACH TO PROJECT THE FUTURE GROWTH OF TROPICAL FOREST (CSM-TROPICAL)

Abstract

The current and conventional technique of forest growth projection is based on empirical approach of statistical analysis where aggregated group values of volume and number of trees species and their respective sizes are used. The use of inventory technique that creates the coordinate of trees, made the simulation for predicting future growth using individual trees, or tree mapping, possible. The techniques predict the growth of trees, as well as predicting the growth of saplings and seedlings. In this case, not only the growth of tree is projected, trees that are going to die, new trees and seedlings with their locations, are also projected. This definitely will enhance the current technique being adopted for the simulation of forest growth in tropical forests. It was shown that each tree will be simulated on its future growth based on its surrounding trees’ neighbours and its ability to compete to grow. In this aspect, the simulation is capable to identify the rate of growth of the individual trees. In addition to the growth of trees, the uncertainty technique using Bayes theorem was applied to mortality and recruitment of trees. The locations (coordinate) of the new seedlings will be identified based on the potential mother trees. As the result of this approach, the distribution of trees could be predicted in future. The system, however, made available various formulas to be applied in this simulation. Hence, this approach is not only applied for inputs to the decision making during logging operation, but also could improve the management of forest resources. That includes the needs to report the status of forest resources, including the distribution of its trees and species. The simulation models are validated using two methods, calculation of stability index volume (SIV) and comparison of diameter and height growth with previous models. The SIV values suggested that the future forest is in equilibrium state while comparison among the growth models indicated that the models includes the most important processes for realistic description of growth and dynamics of trees in a tropical rain forest.