THE APPLICATION OF CHAOTIC APPROACH TO SEA LEVEL FOR EAST COAST OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

Abstract

Prediction of sea level is important due to the increasing of sea level rise by year per year and it can lead to the flood and tsunamis. This study is a study using chaotic approach to predict sea level rise in Malaysia. Studied data is a time series of observed hourly sea level at three stations located in district of Chendering in Terengganu, district Geting in Kelantan and district Tanjung Gelang in Pahang. Chaotic approach has two steps, namely the phase space reconstruction and prediction process. Through step 1, phase space reconstructed using the parameter of delay time � = 4 and embedding dimension � = 6 for both stations Chendering and Tanjung Gelang, and � = 5 and � = 5 for Geting, derived from average mutual information and cao method. The result from phase space diagram and parameter plot of cao method shows that the data are chaotic. Through step 2, prediction for a month sea level time series data is carried out by using the local linear approximation method and auto regressive method. Correlations coefficients value between the real data and predict data is only 0.9356. However, comparison graph show shows the real data and predict data are closed with root mean square error value 8.7012. This show the suitability of the local approximation method to predict the time series of sea level and it’s a positive sign that this chaotic approach is applicable to the time series of sea level in Malaysia.