Comparison between Pearson and Monte Carlo Curves Density Function Approximation for Power Production Reliability Evaluation of Micro Grid PV Standalone System

Abstract

University Kuala Lumpur Malaysia France Institute (UniKL MFI) have made a feasibility study of providing localised renewable energy system for Lubuk Batu Village, Kemaman, Terengganu with the assistance of Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) engineer on guiding the team to the village. The system proposed will be a micro grid PV standalone system having a capacity of 20kW. The system is sufficient to support a maximum 10 housholds villagers. The work presented in this paper considers the possibility of using Pearson curves density function approximation in the reliability evaluation of probabilistic system performance model. Probabilistic performance model of micro grid PV Standalone system was developed Considering the stochastic properties of the power production, the evolution of the probability distribution of the estimated power production was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Applying the Pearson system, density function of the simulated performance model was obtained by considering the first to fourth statistical moments. The reliability of the system performance model was evaluated based on the Pearson system frequency curve. Other than capability to take on variety shapes of distribution, application of Pearson density curves has advantages in terms of finite range which makes it particularly applicable to the modeling of system performance characterized by random input and output parameters.